2OR ESR Estimates

[sendekyo]

I was bored over the weekend and was trying to tinker with some of my player templates to plan where to spend their skill points in the future. I realized I was planning rather blindly because I wasn't anticipating the change in Effective Skill Rating (ESR) during the transition from league to league. I spent a while perusing many, many player skill charts to estimate the ESR from each league to compile the following data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

The ESR estimates show more teams choose to have a higher level lineup, then fill their pitching staff with sleepers. It also gives you an idea of what level your player may need to be in order to reach those skill totals.

For example, Tier D players have 64 and 62 total skill points which is approximately level 10. Tier C players have 118 and 115 total skill points which is approximately level 20 or level 17 with the first celebrity bonus. Etc.

These values were extracted on April 1st, may not be exactly correct, and will likely continue to change. I will attempt to compare values from the beginning, middle, and the end of a season as well as one season to another to track how the values fluctuate.

[adamwer]

that's really cool! good info to have as well

[sendekyo]

I updated the spreadsheet to include the ESR from each skill and stacked them to allow us to get a sense of any trends. I will attempt to continue to update this through the entirety of season 14. Thank you.

[Canonico]

I updated the spreadsheet to include the ESR from each skill and stacked them to allow us to get a sense of any trends. I will attempt to continue to update this through the entirety of season 14. Thank you.

No no, thank you for your work!

[SilentButDeadly]

You brains amaze me. And your work ethic is flawless. Well done good sir!

[philtrick2003]

Interesting that the pitchers 100% ESR is almost always less than the batters 100% ESR.

Thoughts on why?

My theory... there are 13 pitchers to 12 position players on a club. 8 of the pitchers are in the bullpen and tend to be much lower levels compared to their starting bretheren. Additionally, of the 12 position players, only 3 are generally "lower level" and on the bench.

As such, it would seem that clubs are showing a tendency to save money in the bullpen and spend it on starters/position players. (That's how I do it as a GM, btw)

If you assume that a full salary cap can afford a team of average level x5 (lvl 5 for tier D, 15 for C, etc) then..

13 pitchers averaging x4 and 12 batters averaging x6 would come out to a split of 130 skill points. Divided by the number of pitchers, you get an average ESR delta of ~10 (130 / 13).

Deltas by tier, as of "Middle".

Tier	Pitcher Total	Batter Total	Delta
D	62	64	2
C	115	118	3
B	163	170	7
D	270	283	13

I would expect these deltas to be largest at the beginning of the season, when you have your slew of x1-x3 pitchers in your bullpen. By mid-season, they've gained 2-3 levels compared to 1-2 levels of the higher level position players. A clear example is Tier A, where the delta decreases to 5 by the end of the season. I suspect this is due to the number of 45+ position players that were signed versus low 30s pitchers. Given the uniqueness of the tier (you can sign any level, but the salary cap is designed around the 30-40 tier), it's VERY clear from this that most of the league is following the same strategy of stocking up on big bats and little arms.

Honestly, if I were you... I wouldn't share this data as it could be used by GMs to gain a competitive advantage.

For example, knowing that the pitchers in Tier A need 13 fewer skill points than the batters to reach 100 ESR means that you can try two different approaches:

1) Spend more heavily on pitching than you would otherwise, hoping to have an extremely dominant pitching staff.
2) Limit your spending to match the ESR for an "average" pitching team, pushing the extra cash into signing higher quality position players.

Of course, since the ESR changes so dramatically during the signing period, you'd have to be ontop of keeping it up-to-date while managing your signings.

tldr;

Fascinating data.

[sendekyo]

I decided to continue with this project even though I was suggested to stop to give myself a competitive advantage. I can't argue with the idea, but this is just a compilation of the publicized data. Some scouts may choose to hide their player's skills, but the ESR for a tier is quite accessible as long as there is at least two players in each tier with their skills shown (one fielder and one pitcher).

This data should be helpful for all scouts whether they are planning to create a new player, have a player who will be changing tiers, or simply want to analyze any trends. I should note these are these values are the 50% average Effective Skill Rating. If you want your player to peak in a particular skill, then simply multiply the value times two.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

Here is some quick analysis I noticed.

Batters are quite balanced in tier D with a very slight favoritism toward muscle, then swings heavily toward vision in tier C and onward. Speed is the most sought after skill in tiers C, B, and A. The players seem to slam on the brakes in the WBL and swaps to bat control.

Pitchers in every tier favor control probably because of their emphasis on stamina and a desire to start. Power is always the highest skill while pitchers seek strikeouts, but velocity is typically the least chosen focus due to delivery and pickoff being the least desirable skills to scouts.


Finally, the progression from tiers D to C to B is fairly linear, then increases abruptly as players enter tier A and retains that rate into the WBL.

[fanboygraham]

Power is always the highest skill while pitchers seek strikeouts, but velocity is typically the least chosen focus due to delivery and pickoff being the least desirable skills to scouts.

You're probably right about this, but I'm not sure the thought process on the part of the community is correct. I have a personal theory that delivery is incredibly important, especially for movement pitchers (or any hybrid pitcher that is emulating a "ground ball" pitcher from real baseball e.g. Roy Halladay).

I found that my movement pitchers had a tendency to give up a TONNE of singles up the middle, so have taken to leveling up delivery a lot more and it seems to be helping.

[Peter Jahn]

Power is always the highest skill while pitchers seek strikeouts, but velocity is typically the least chosen focus due to delivery and pickoff being the least desirable skills to scouts.

You're probably right about this, but I'm not sure the thought process on the part of the community is correct. I have a personal theory that delivery is incredibly important, especially for movement pitchers (or any hybrid pitcher that is emulating a "ground ball" pitcher from real baseball e.g. Roy Halladay).

I found that my movement pitchers had a tendency to give up a TONNE of singles up the middle, so have taken to leveling up delivery a lot more and it seems to be helping.

nice to know!
as you may noticed the fewest managers of all chose movement for their pitcher, it is in this order: control>velocity>balanced>movement (so for all but movement pitchers, delivery might be almost useless)

[sendekyo]

It is now the middle of season 14, so the ESR values for batters and pitchers were added to my sheet so we could compare them. There was either very little or very consistent changes made in each tier, so not many trends are jumping out at me.

Vision is currently the predominant focus for hitters based on their ESR, while it's still Control for pitchers.

[sendekyo]

Season 14 has ended and the latest ESR values were added to my sheet for comparison's sake. Check out the trends as it may help you to better spend your skill points for next season. Here are the skills with the most and least growth over the course of the season:

Most Growth:

Batters	Pitchers
Bat Control	Power
Speed	Stamina
Pull	Paint Corner

Least Growth:

Batters	Pitchers
Lower Body	Delivery
Ground Ball	Pickoff
Grace	Mechanics

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

[sendekyo]

The differences between season 13 and 14 were almost negligible, so I initially considered to stop this project. However, the new contract system for season 15 changed my mind. The league average skills for season 15 have been added to the spreadsheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

Before starting I hypothesized the league average and ESR would go up compared to last season. My reasoning was human teams would now be able to sign more higher level players to their roster and would cause more lower level players to sign elsewhere in alternative leagues, thus causing ESR to go up in the primary leagues as a result.

I was completely wrong.

If you flip between seasons 14 and 15, then you will see ESR is down across the board for all leagues. Tier B batters and tier C pitchers were most negatively affected with a difference of 160 to 146 (-14) and 105 to 92 (-13), respectively.

[Peter Jahn]

as always, nice stats. thx again for your effort!

[sendekyo]

I'm a little late for my mid-season update, but here it is anyway. Remember that the values listed are the league averages. If you want your player to be most effective in a particular skill, then simply multiply the value by two.
(i.e. Tier D batter league average for line drive is 5, while 100% ESR would be 10.)

Skill point levels are rising, but some still have yet to meet the ESR levels from the previous season. For example, tier C pitchers have a league average total of 101 skill points, while they had 110 at this point in season 14 and 105 when it started.

[sendekyo]

Season 15 is finished and the playoffs are scheduled to start tomorrow night, so here's the end of season update.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

You can see some skills showed steady progression throughout the season, while others had minimal or no change. It should be pretty helpful when you are trying to keep up with the rest of the league. For example, you might decide to raise your player's line drive skill as compared to lower body because the latter rarely changes during the season.

Skill point levels continued to rise throughout the season, but they never met the ESR levels from the previous season. Why? Your guess is as good as mine, really.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[sendekyo]

The league average skills for season 16 have been added to the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub ... utput=html

Remember, the values in this spreadsheet are only the league averages for their respective leagues, which means it's only worth 50% of the Effective Skill Rating (ESR). Double the amount to determine the "cap" before other effects (moxie, gamechangers, focus, L/R advantages, etc).

The ESR totals are down for batters in tiers D and C as well as tier D pitchers as compared to last season. Meanwhile, totals are up all-around for tiers B, A, and the WBL. This is probably a direct result of multi-season contracts from the new contract system.

If you want to learn more about ESR, then please check out that section in the Player's Guide.